Oilers' metrics reveals surprising reason for team's slow start

Of course, it's never only one thing that defines a team's success, or lack of it; but the metric that measures a team's luck - PDO - indicates the Oilers haven't had much luck this season, even with a winning record of 6-5-3.

The definition of the PDO 'is the sum of a team's, or player's on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage during even-strength play. It is widely considered a proxy for luck and is typically multiplied by 100 to represent a team's performance.'

As of early November 2025, the Edmonton Oilers' PDO is 96.4, below the 100 league average, which indicates a disparity between their performance and results.

A PDO of 100 is considered average because over a large enough sample size, the combination of shooting and save percentages for all teams should equal 100%.

However, the reason for the Oilers' slow-start is not only a lack of good luck, but poor play in general. Key factors contributing to their perceived bad luck include numerous injuries to important players, poor goaltending, and a low shooting percentage.

They're also 29th in 5v5 shooting %, 26th in save % in all game-situations, and have a 5v5 xG% of 54, and an Actual Goal % of 17% 5v5, according to MoneyPuck. It's difficult to blame luck for generally weak play.

Given that PDO measures luck, it stands to reason that the number will rise to eventually equal 100, where Edmonton's shooting and save % will balance out. This team is fat too talented to not score on its opportunities indefinitely.

It would be much more concerning if the Oilers had a high PDO and were still losing games, because the belief in that situation is that they would get even worse.

In the end, you create your own luck and opportunities. The work on actually getting better will be on the players and coaching staff, and the work-ethic they put forward.