NHL insider shares new salary projection for Connor McDavid's next contract

The fact that it's uncertain whether McDavid will remain with Edmonton only adds another level of complexity to an already difficult situation, this after his 'no-term' comment.

One of those complexities surrounds another David Pagnotta report that suggests Krill Kaprisov's next deal will also be around $17M, though it seems Krill continues to hold-out on signing with Minnesota until Connor signs his deal with Edmonton, so as to gauge the NHL salary benchmark.

On the one hand, however, despite the large dollar value of McDavid's potential contract with the Oilers - and it could be more than $17M once said and done - if the salary cap continues to rise as expected, the percentage of the team's cap hit taken up by McDavid's contract might not be significantly higher than his previous deal.

Rising to $170M from $95M is a substantial increase and will without question change the dynamic of how players and management do business.

By the same token, an AAV in excess of $17M for McDavid will significantly impact the Oilers' ability to build a supporting cast and acquire key depth players, especially in the initial years of the contract when the cap percentage taken up is highest. This could potentially hinder the team's ability to compete for a championship in the short term.

McDavid has emphasized his desire to win in Edmonton, and to commit to the Oilers because of his belief in the team's ability to compete for the Stanley Cup.

The 2025-26 season may just be the key to the puzzle that is Connor McDavid. A strong campaign and post-season could determine how long he remains.

A losing 2025-26 season, well, let's not think about that just yet, and focus on having a good start to the season.