"Could almost double": NHL insiders reveal wild new projection for salary cap increase

For perspective, the 2005-2006 salary cap, when Sidney Crosby began his career with Pittsburgh, was $39M; by 2020 it was $81.5M, as per NHL.com.

Now at the height of the Connor McDavid era, when he becomes a UFA July 1, 2026, the quickly-rising salary cap is making its impact felt across the NHL and NHLPA.

Player salaries could surge dramatically, particularly for star players and top free agents. Players like Connor McDavid, whose contract currently holds a $12.5M cap hit, could command upwards of $20M on his next deal.

Some of the positive effects of a rising salary cap is the ability for teams to sign top talent to longer and more lucrative contracts, while retaining core players more easily, potentially leading to fewer departures in free agency.

Teams could also potentially lean towards offering maximum contract terms to secure their star players long-term, providing both financial security for players and team control for franchises.

However, perhaps the greatest consequence of an inflated team salary cap is the potential for a competitive shift of balance.

Big-market teams with significant financial resources would have a greater ability to sign multiple elite players, as with Edmonton's McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard, as well as other future young-talent.

Conversely, though the NHL's revenue-sharing system aims to mitigate the widening gap between wealthier and less wealthy teams, small-market teams that struggle financially might not have the ability to sign multiple big-contracts and continue to not be competitive.

The current salary cap is projected to rise to $95.5M in 2025-26, $104M in 2026-27, and $113.5M in 2027-28, based on the current NHL CBA. A leap to $170 million in 2033-34 would represent an even larger hit to those small-market clubs.

As with any micro-economy, the NHL will find an equilibrium when the salary cap rises, though who will be the winners and losers remains to be seen.