Oilers Analyst Suggests Demoting Core Player to Third Line to Balance Lineup

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Liam McCormick
November 3, 2024 (5:27 PM)

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The Edmonton Oilers may have a problem with the play of their third line this season, and one analyst is suggesting demoting a core player to the bottom six to fix it.

Hockey analyst NHL Sid wrote an incredible breakdown of the Oilers problems with the third line, which he believes could cost the team a Stanley Cup. The last 5 Cup Winners have all had a third line with a goal differential of at least 54%, while this year, the Oilers third line is far below that threshold at a rate of 23%.

The third line of Henrique, Brown, and Janmark have some bad luck skewed against them so far, but their underlying numbers are supplying much confidence. The two wingers on that line last year only combined for a total of 8 goals too. Sid suggests that to best optimize the Oilers lineup, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could slide down to the third line left wing, with Jeff Skinner taking the place on the first line.

»Firstly, let's establish that Janmark - Henrique - Brown is simply not a viable third line at this point for a cup contender. The trio has been out-scored 1 to 3 and holds an atrocious 28 percent high-danger chance differential. Specifically, Janmark's zone entry and exit results are just as poor as Henrique's; all things considered, Janmark is an awful stylistic fit for him.»
- NHL Sid, Oilers Nation

Henrique and Janmark have similar play profiles as slower, defensive minded forwards. Both can be solid contributors to the Oilers, but perhaps not on the same line. On the third line, Nuge could provide a boost of speed, chip in some offence against weaker competition, and balance out the Oilers lineup as a whole.

Coach Knoblauch is no stranger to mixing up the lines significantly, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him try Nugent-Hopkins anchoring the bottom-six. We'll have to see in the next few weeks if Knoblauch is dialled into the analytics, and takes the suggestions to break up the third line.